After spending a couple of years of my life to figuring out hockey*, here are my predictions for the 2026 NFL season. Trust me, it will work out this way, just ask Henry Silva.
*-I haven’t figured hockey out. My Point Shares are OK, but nowhere perfect. It’s a work in progress.
AFC East (Predicted finish)
Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
55 dead bodies
The Texas State Armadillos
The Little Giants
California Atoms
New York Jets
I believe Buffalo will get back into first in the division. New England will remain solid. Miami still stinks. And do you realize that since the Jets last intercepted an opponent’s pass:
Rory McIlroy won two Masters
The Knicks ended a 53 year drought
The Thunder won their first NBA title
The Hurricanes won their first Stanley Cup in 20 years
The Florida Panthers won their second Cup in a row
The Chiefs made their third straight Super Bowl
The Eagles won their second Super Bowl title
The Seahawks won their second Super Bowl Title
The Dodgers won their second straight World Series
(for those not counting, that’s seven of the Big 4 titles decided)
The Jets played agains the QB who threw the most interceptions in the league TWICE
We have witnessed two 12-team College Football Playoffs
The Indiana University football program won as many postseason games (3) as they had won in their entire school’s history (and this was a football program that was started the year before Jack the Ripper was killing prostitutes in London’s East End)
The Jets are that bad.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
I don’t get the McCarthy hiring at all; this is NOT what the Steelers do. McCarthy is not an up-and-comer, he’s not someone who has showed promise over the past couple of years (I have a McCarthy Score named after his punting decisions, not a positive thing), and if he has proven anything, he can underachieve with everything.
That being said, the Bengals still can’t play defense, and the Browns, well, let’s just say I believe that by the end of the season, the once historic franchise will have a lifetime record under .500*
*-The Original Browns from 1946 thru 1995 were 421-270-13 in the regular season, 16-19 in the playoffs. This edition is 146-290-1 in the regular season, 1-3 in the playoffs. That makes them 567-560-14 in the regular season, 17-22 in the playoffs, combined 584-582-14 overall. If anyone believes this team will not finish three or more games below .500, I have one question: Can I buy some pot from you?
AFC South
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
This division sucks. Let’s just move on.
AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders
Father Time is undefeated. The Chiefs are on the downside, that’s just reality. I have no idea what the Raiders are doing, and for anyone wanting to point at the fact that Tom Brady is involved and knows how to win, Derek Jeter knew a lot about winning and please let me know about his time with the Marlins.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders
New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
After the Eagles, I don’t’ know what to think about this division. I mean, I should know that to think about the Cowboys, since they are the talk on TV, but um, no, I have no idea what to think of them.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
I don’t trust come from behind wins as a useful stat. Teams don’t repeat that pace year to year. Please look at the Browns in 1980 and again in 1981. But I also don’t trust Green Bay’s coaching staff (I know it’s not McCarthy, but the decision in the NFC Championship
NFC South
Who Cares
Who Cares
Who Cares
Who Cares
This time I’m not even picking a “winner”. But I will ask this: The Baker Mayfield situation says more about: Baker or the Bucs? I mean, everyone worships quarterbacks, And, let’s face it, Baker has played really well for the Bucs. And yes, the Bucs folded like an oragami artist (2-7 after the bye week), and it seems like everyone in the organization is on thin ice with hot blades, so maybe ownership is not into long term deals if they are going to blow things up come January.
Regardless, this division still blows.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals
Seattle had the top defense in the league last season. For those who don’t’ get it, getting stops is every bit as important as scoring. The Rams are aging and the Niners can’t stay healthy, but they will finish ahead of the Cardinals. When Jacoby Brissett can hold a team hostage, that’s a sign that you are awful.
Wild Card Round
Niners over Who Cares
Rams over Vikings
Eagles over Commanders
Pats over Ravens
Broncos over Texans
Chargers over Jaguars
Divisional Round
Niners over Rams
Seahawks over Eagles
Bills over Chargers
Broncos over Pats
Don’t ask. The NFL stands for No F^(&!&# Logic.
Championship Weekend
Broncos over Bills
Seahawks over Niners
I can’t believe that the Niners will be healthy enough at this point, and, well, the Bills . . .
Super Bowl
Broncos over Seahawks
The Broncos get revenge from the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl. If any of those players are involved in this game, I will be shocked.
In 2001 Bill James provided the baseball world with Win Shares. That same year Baseball Prospectus came out with WARP, or Wins Above Replacement Player. Since then the concept of a player’s value has been constantly calculated for a quarter of a century. Most of it has been in baseball, but the people at the Sports Reference sites have added their own statistics for football, basketball, and hockey. I love the contributions everyone has made to this field – the most important thing about a player is their value and their value is in winning games – so I decided to dabble in this as well.
Much of this has similar features to Bill James’ Win Shares and Hockey Reference’s Point Shares, and then I added some other things to get my version of Point Shares.
Simply put, a Point Share is half of a team point in the standings; if a team has 100 points, that’s 200 Point Shares to distribute amongst the players, if a team has 82 points, that’s 164 to distribute. It is a dead straight 2-1 relationship. No rounding will take away that relationship. Like Win Shares and HR’s Point Shares, my system also distributes based on Marginal Goals (Runs in baseball, of course), then determining how to distribute Offensive, Defensive, and Goaltending Point Shares is based on several factors, but mostly based on goals created and prevented. There will be a couple of caveats along the way because of terrible teams, we will deal with them. Let’s get started, shall we?
Part 1: Determining Offensive and Defensive Point Shares
The first thing we have to do is figure out the league average of goals scored and allowed. We’ll use the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers for an example. That season the teams averaged 252.6875 goals per game. Marginal Goals for offense are all goals above half of the league average. So the since the Oilers had 292 goals, that is 165.66 Marginal Goals on offense (252.68 / 2 = 126.34; 292 minus 126.34 = 165.66).
Marginal Goals on defense (goaltending and defense) are all goals below one and a half times the league average. The Oilers gave up 236 goals, so that is (252.68 x 1.5 = 379.03; 379.03 minus 236 = 143.03)
Adding these two together we get 308.69 Marginal Goals. Now, 165.66 divided by 308.69 is .537, meaning that 53.7% of the Oilers’ Point Shares will go to the offense, 46.3% to the defense. The Oilers in 2023-24 were 49-27-6, which is 104 points. This means the Oilers have 208 Point Shares to distribute amongst the players. So 111.62 Point Shares will go to the offense, 96.38 will go to the defense/goaltending.
Part 2: Determining Offensive Point Shares for the Individual Players
Goals Created
Hockey Reference has a formula for Goals Created, which we will use. The formula is:
The player’s goals
Plus half of their assists
Divided by the quotient of (Team Goals divided by (Team Goals plus half of Team Assists))
So Connor McDavid in 2023-24 had 32 goals and 100 assists, the team had 292 goals and 507 assists:
When you add these up for the entire team the sum will be 292 Goals Created.
Next we remove Background Goals. Background Goals are determined by
Player’s Shots on Goal
Times the league shooting percentage
Times .5
For McDavid:
263 shots
Times .102 (Lg Shooting Pct.)
Times .5
This equals 13.38 Background Goals. We subtract that from the Goals Created, which gives us 30.51. So Connor McDavid has 30.51 Offensive Claim Points against a team total of 152.60. For the rest of the team:
Player
OCP
Connor McDavid
30.51
Leon Draisaitl
28.30
Evan Bouchard
15.57
Zach Hyman
20.31
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
13.44
Mattias Ekholm
5.98
Evander Kane
7.01
Warren Foegele
6.10
Darnell Nurse
2.03
Ryan McLeod
5.85
Cody Ceci
3.09
Brett Kulak
0.30
Corey Perry
2.77
Derek Ryan
1.90
Connor Brown
0.00
Mattias Janmark
0.87
Vincent Desharnais
1.13
Sam Gagner
1.57
Adam Henrique
2.54
Dylan Holloway
1.17
Sam Carrick
1.11
James Hamblin
0.42
Adam Erne
0.14
Philip Broberg
0.23
Troy Stecher
0.23
Jack Campbell
0.00
Philip Kemp
0.00
Raphael Lavoie
0.00
Calvin Pickard
0.00
Stuart Skinner
0.00
Total
152.60
This means that McDavid has 22.32 Offensive Point Shares:
Player
OCP
OPS
Connor McDavid
30.51
22.32
Leon Draisaitl
28.30
20.70
Evan Bouchard
15.57
11.39
Zach Hyman
20.31
14.86
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
13.44
9.83
Mattias Ekholm
5.98
4.38
Evander Kane
7.01
5.13
Warren Foegele
6.10
4.46
Darnell Nurse
2.03
1.49
Ryan McLeod
5.85
4.28
Cody Ceci
3.09
2.26
Brett Kulak
0.30
0.22
Corey Perry
2.77
2.03
Derek Ryan
1.90
1.39
Connor Brown
0.00
0.00
Mattias Janmark
0.87
0.64
Vincent Desharnais
1.13
0.82
Sam Gagner
1.57
1.15
Adam Henrique
2.54
1.86
Dylan Holloway
1.17
0.85
Sam Carrick
1.11
0.81
James Hamblin
0.42
0.31
Adam Erne
0.14
0.10
Philip Broberg
0.23
0.17
Troy Stecher
0.23
0.17
Jack Campbell
0.00
0.00
Philip Kemp
0.00
0.00
Raphael Lavoie
0.00
0.00
Calvin Pickard
0.00
0.00
Stuart Skinner
0.00
0.00
Total
152.60
111.62
Part 3: Separating Defensive Point Shares between Skaters and Goalies
There are four categories to break down Defensive Point Shares with the most recent information (from 2005 to the present):
CL-1: Shots Against
Take a team’s shots against and divide that by the league average of shots, then multiply that times 100. For Edmonton in 2023-24, they had 2307 shots against them compared to the league average of 2483.5. Dividing 2307 by 2843.5, then multiplying that times 100, we get 92.89. We will call this CL-1. The other three will work the same way.
CL-2: Hits
Edmonton had 1873 hits against a league average of 1863.94. This gives them a CL-2 of 100.49.
CL-3: Blocked Shots
The Oilers had 1103 blocks against 1290.63. This gives them a CL-3 of 85.46.
CL-4: Takeaways
The Oilers had 700 takeaways against 571.81. This gives them a CL-4 of 122.42.
Now, to break this down, add up CL-2, 3, and 4, and divide that by the sum of all four CL’s:
308.37 / 401.26 = .769
I’m obviously rounding these numbers for simplicity’s sake. You take that percentage and multiply that times the team’s Defensive Point Shares:
96.38 x .769 = 74.07
The skaters will get 74.07 DPS to divide.
96.38 – 74.07 = 22.31
The goalies will divide up 22.31 Point Shares (we’ll call these Goalie Point Shares)
Part 4: Dividing up Defensive Point Shares Between Skaters
There are five Claim Points for skaters
DCL-1, 2, 3: Blocks, Hits, and Takeaways
Each one is the Player’s divided by the team total, then multiplied times the Claim Points for each category. Going back to McDavid:
DCL-1: 39 blocks / 1103 blocks x 85.46 = 3.02
DCL-2: 118 hits / 1873 hits x 100.49 = 6.33
DCL-3: 68 takeaways / 700 takeaways x 122.42 = 4.44
DCL-4: Plus/Minus
This is a bit of a pain; I apologize in advance.
Step 1:
Take the player’s Plus/Minus and multiply it times his (Time on Ice divided by 3600). For McDavid:
(+35) x (1623 / 3600) = 15.78
Step 2:
Take the team’s Marginal Goals Against, multiply that times (Time on Ice divided by 3600). For McDavid:
143.03 MGA x (1623 / 3600) = 64.48
Step 3:
Add Steps 1 and 2 together:
15.78 + 64.48 = 80.26
Step 4:
Take that sum and multiply it times a defensive factor. For forwards that factor is .4, for defensemen it is .6.
80.26 x .4 = 32.10
Again, rounding for simplicity. McDavid’s fourth Claim Points are 32.10.
DCL-5: Penalty Minutes
Claim Points for this is the player’s PIM divided by the team total, then multiplied by the opponent’s Power Play Success (1 minus Penalty Kill Percentage) then multiply that times 100. Again, McDavid:
30 PIM / 762 = .039
.039 x .205 = .008
.008 x 100 = .81
Part 5: Converting Claim Points into Defensive Point Shares
First, we add the first four Claim Points together, then subtract the fifth Claim Points. No one’s Claim Points can be below zero. Connor McDavid had 3.02 Claim Points for his blocks, 6.33 for his hits, 4.44 for his takeaways, 32.10 for his Plus/Minus, and .81 for his PIM. This gives him a sum of 45.09 Defensive Claim Points, against a team total of 720.59. The Oilers have 74.07 Defensive Point Shares, so McDavid earns 4.63 Defensive Point Shares (45.09 / 720.59 x 74.07). The Defensive Point Shares for the 2023-24 Oilers:
Player
DCL-1
DCL-2
DCL-3
DCL-4
DCL-5
DCP
DPS
Connor McDavid
3.02
6.33
4.44
32.10
0.81
45.09
4.63
Leon Draisaitl
2.01
3.11
5.36
31.48
2.05
39.91
4.10
Evan Bouchard
8.14
3.81
3.86
54.97
0.86
69.91
7.19
Zach Hyman
2.87
4.67
2.29
31.03
1.29
39.56
4.07
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2.56
3.33
3.99
26.70
0.97
35.60
3.66
Mattias Ekholm
7.21
7.30
2.61
51.84
1.27
67.69
6.96
Evander Kane
2.25
13.41
1.63
19.96
2.29
34.96
3.59
Warren Foegele
2.48
4.77
2.61
18.59
1.27
27.20
2.80
Darnell Nurse
13.33
9.01
1.24
43.15
2.13
64.60
6.64
Ryan McLeod
2.63
3.49
4.31
19.62
0.27
29.79
3.06
Cody Ceci
8.21
4.88
1.63
40.88
0.38
55.23
5.68
Brett Kulak
6.82
4.13
1.05
30.08
0.81
41.27
4.24
Corey Perry
0.70
1.50
0.59
7.70
0.92
9.57
0.98
Derek Ryan
2.17
3.17
2.29
11.11
0.22
18.52
1.90
Connor Brown
1.86
1.72
3.01
13.64
0.27
19.95
2.05
Mattias Janmark
1.47
2.95
0.98
13.43
1.24
17.59
1.81
Vincent Desharnais
9.45
7.24
0.92
29.86
1.46
46.02
4.73
Sam Gagner
1.32
0.91
0.13
4.48
0.27
6.57
0.68
Adam Henrique
1.63
2.15
0.39
5.40
0.11
9.46
0.97
Dylan Holloway
1.08
4.88
0.92
6.82
0.78
12.92
1.33
Sam Carrick
0.62
1.61
0.46
2.72
0.32
5.08
0.52
James Hamblin
1.63
0.75
0.46
3.99
0.00
6.83
0.70
Adam Erne
0.39
3.65
0.26
2.99
0.24
7.04
0.72
Philip Broberg
0.77
0.21
0.13
3.24
0.00
4.36
0.45
Troy Stecher
0.77
0.80
0.13
2.74
0.22
4.24
0.44
Jack Campbell
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Philip Kemp
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
Raphael Lavoie
0.08
0.70
0.07
0.80
0.05
1.59
0.16
Calvin Pickard
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
Stuart Skinner
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Now we go to the goalies . . .
Part 6: Dividing Goalie Point Shares Between Goalies
There are three categories that we use for goalies: Saves, Goals Prevented, and Record.
GCL-1: Saves
Saves Claim Points are the goalie’s saves divided by the team total, multiplied times CL-1 from Part 3. In 2023-24, Stuart Skinner played 59 games between the pipes, recording 1406 saves. The Oilers as a team recorded 2071 saves and their CL-1 was 92.89. So:
1406 / 2071 x 92.89 = 63.07
That is Skinner’s GCL-1
GCL-2: Goals Prevented
Step 1
First you take the league’s shooting percentage, multiply that times the goalie’s shots against. Skinner had 1553 shots against him with the league shooting .102:
.102 x 1553 = 158.01
Step 2
Next, multiply that times 1.5:
158.01 x 1.5 = 237.02
Step 3
Finally, subtract his goals allowed:
237.02 – 147 = 90.02
Skinner’s GCL-2 is 90.02
GCL-3: Record
Skinner had a 36-16-5 record, good for 77 points. Skinner’s GCL-3 is 77.00
Part 7: Converting Claim Points into Goalie Point Shares
Edmonton had three goaltenders during the 2023-24 season. Skinner had 63.07 points for his saves, 90.02 for his goals prevented, and 77.00 for his record. Here are the totals for the Oilers’ netminders:
Goalie
GCL-1
GCL-2
GCL-3
GCP
Stuart Skinner
63.07
90.02
77.00
230.08
Calvin Pickard
23.68
35.67
25.00
84.36
Jack Campbell
6.15
3.96
2.00
12.11
Back in Part 3 we determined that the goalies would receive 22.31 Point Shares for their time in the crease. This is how the Shares are distributed:
Goalie
GCL-1
GCL-2
GCL-3
GCP
GPS
Stuart Skinner
63.07
90.02
77.00
230.08
15.72
Calvin Pickard
23.68
35.67
25.00
84.36
5.76
Jack Campbell
6.15
3.96
2.00
12.11
0.83
Part 8: Combining all Point Shares and Converting Them into Integers
Next, we add each player’s offensive, defensive, and goalie point shares together:
Player
OPS
DPS
GPS
TPS
Connor McDavid
22.32
4.63
0.00
26.96
Leon Draisaitl
20.70
4.10
0.00
24.81
Evan Bouchard
11.39
7.19
0.00
18.58
Zach Hyman
14.86
4.07
0.00
18.92
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
9.83
3.66
0.00
13.49
Mattias Ekholm
4.38
6.96
0.00
11.33
Evander Kane
5.13
3.59
0.00
8.72
Warren Foegele
4.46
2.80
0.00
7.26
Darnell Nurse
1.49
6.64
0.00
8.13
Ryan McLeod
4.28
3.06
0.00
7.34
Cody Ceci
2.26
5.68
0.00
7.94
Brett Kulak
0.22
4.24
0.00
4.46
Corey Perry
2.03
0.98
0.00
3.01
Derek Ryan
1.39
1.90
0.00
3.30
Connor Brown
0.00
2.05
0.00
2.05
Mattias Janmark
0.64
1.81
0.00
2.45
Vincent Desharnais
0.82
4.73
0.00
5.55
Sam Gagner
1.15
0.68
0.00
1.83
Adam Henrique
1.86
0.97
0.00
2.83
Dylan Holloway
0.85
1.33
0.00
2.18
Sam Carrick
0.81
0.52
0.00
1.33
James Hamblin
0.31
0.70
0.00
1.01
Adam Erne
0.10
0.72
0.00
0.83
Philip Broberg
0.17
0.45
0.00
0.62
Troy Stecher
0.17
0.44
0.00
0.60
Jack Campbell
0.00
0.00
0.83
0.83
Philip Kemp
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Raphael Lavoie
0.00
0.16
0.00
0.16
Calvin Pickard
0.00
0.00
5.76
5.76
Stuart Skinner
0.00
0.00
15.72
15.72
Next, we do what Bill James did with Win Shares to convert Point Shares into integers. We remove all of the decimals from the totals:
Player
TPS
Connor McDavid
26
Leon Draisaitl
24
Evan Bouchard
18
Zach Hyman
18
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
13
Mattias Ekholm
11
Evander Kane
8
Warren Foegele
7
Darnell Nurse
8
Ryan McLeod
7
Cody Ceci
7
Brett Kulak
4
Corey Perry
3
Derek Ryan
3
Connor Brown
2
Mattias Janmark
2
Vincent Desharnais
5
Sam Gagner
1
Adam Henrique
2
Dylan Holloway
2
Sam Carrick
1
James Hamblin
1
Adam Erne
0
Philip Broberg
0
Troy Stecher
0
Jack Campbell
0
Philip Kemp
0
Raphael Lavoie
0
Calvin Pickard
5
Stuart Skinner
15
The you sort the players according to their decimals:
Player
TPS
Dec
Connor McDavid
26
0.96
Cody Ceci
7
0.94
Zach Hyman
18
0.92
Adam Henrique
2
0.83
Adam Erne
0
0.83
Jack Campbell
0
0.83
Sam Gagner
1
0.83
Leon Draisaitl
24
0.81
Calvin Pickard
5
0.76
Stuart Skinner
15
0.72
Evander Kane
8
0.72
Philip Broberg
0
0.62
Troy Stecher
0
0.60
Evan Bouchard
18
0.58
Vincent Desharnais
5
0.55
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
13
0.49
Brett Kulak
4
0.46
Mattias Janmark
2
0.45
Ryan McLeod
7
0.34
Sam Carrick
1
0.33
Mattias Ekholm
11
0.33
Derek Ryan
3
0.30
Warren Foegele
7
0.26
Dylan Holloway
2
0.18
Raphael Lavoie
0
0.16
Darnell Nurse
8
0.13
Connor Brown
2
0.05
Corey Perry
3
0.01
James Hamblin
1
0.01
Philip Kemp
0
0.00
In this case the decimals add up to 15, meaning that we have to add 15 Point Shares to the team total. We do that by starting at the top of the list, add 1 additional Point Share for a player until we reach the correct total of Point Shares. In this case, the first 15 players receive an additional Point Share:
Player
TPS
Dec
PS
Connor McDavid
26
0.96
27
Cody Ceci
7
0.94
8
Zach Hyman
18
0.92
19
Adam Henrique
2
0.83
3
Adam Erne
0
0.83
1
Jack Campbell
0
0.83
1
Sam Gagner
1
0.83
2
Leon Draisaitl
24
0.81
25
Calvin Pickard
5
0.76
6
Stuart Skinner
15
0.72
16
Evander Kane
8
0.72
9
Philip Broberg
0
0.62
1
Troy Stecher
0
0.60
1
Evan Bouchard
18
0.58
19
Vincent Desharnais
5
0.55
6
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
13
0.49
13
Brett Kulak
4
0.46
4
Mattias Janmark
2
0.45
2
Ryan McLeod
7
0.34
7
Sam Carrick
1
0.33
1
Mattias Ekholm
11
0.33
11
Derek Ryan
3
0.30
3
Warren Foegele
7
0.26
7
Dylan Holloway
2
0.18
2
Raphael Lavoie
0
0.16
0
Darnell Nurse
8
0.13
8
Connor Brown
2
0.05
2
Corey Perry
3
0.01
3
James Hamblin
1
0.01
1
Philip Kemp
0
0.00
0
Those are the Point Shares for the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers. McDavid’s 27 Point Shares tied him for second in the NHL that season with Sam Reinhart, Artemi Panarin, and Nikita Kucherov (Colorado’s Nathan McKinnon edged him out with 28).
Changes for Eras
Now, we have some other things to worry about. We don’t have the same amount of data for every season. The method I just explained starts with the 2005-06 season. Before that we don’t have individual data for hits, blocks, or takeaways, so those go by the wayside for players as well as teams. Prior to 1997 we don’t have individual ice time for skaters. Prior to the 1959-60 season we don’t have individual shot data for skaters or plus/minus. And before the Hill Valley clock tower was struck by lightning we don’t have saves data for goalies. These need to be addressed in separate sections. Since we started with the most recent edition, we’ll work backwards.
1997-2004
As I stated above, we don’t have individual hit, block, or takeaway data for individuals. This does two things, both rather simple.
Dividing Defensive Point Shares to Defensive Point Shares and Goalie Point Shares
We still have shot data, so we break it down simply by taking the Defensive Point Shares, multiplying them times .75, then dividing that by (Team Shots Against divided by the League Average).
Dividing Defensive Point Shares Between Individual Skaters
We simply eliminate the first three sets of Claim Points and subtract the Penalty Minute Claim Points from the Plus/Minus Claim Points.
1917-1997 Skating Time on the Ice
Here, we no longer have skater’s ice time, so I developed a way of estimating this. It’s a conservative estimate, and it is only used for the Plus/Minus component of Defensive Point Shares. Unfortunately the method is a little complex so again, I apologize, but here is how this works:
Take a player’s Games Played
Divide that by the total games played by the others at his position (forward or defensemen)
If it’s a forward, divide that quotient (twice I’ve used that word!) by three, if it’s a defenseman, divide by 2
Multiply that times 60
Multiply that times the player’s Games Played
If it’s a forward multiply that times 1.35, if it’s a defenseman, multiply it times 1.2
Subtract the player’s Penalty Minutes
That’s our initial estimate
Take the total minutes played by the goalies
Multiply that times 6
Subtract the team’s Penalty Minutes
The total is the approximate total Minutes Played for the team
Add up the estimates of all of the players plus the goalies’ minutes
Divide #12 by #13
Multiply that times the player’s initial estimate
If the product is less than twice the number of games played (2 minutes), make it two minutes per game played
I use this in place of the time on ice for the Plus/Minus estimate. The reason for this is that using time on the ice is to me seems like a better ratio than games, and putting the estimates into the context that I have does not seem extreme in one way or another. A quick example: Jozef Stumpel in 1996-97 played in 78 games as a center for the Boston Bruins. He was 24 years old and by my estimation he played about 22 minutes a game. Adam Oates, a 34-year old center playing in 63 games averaged an estimated 18 minutes per game. That does seem reasonable, at least to me.
Now, this is far from perfect. I’m still tinkering with it, and the biggest problem is players with few games. I will update it as I get better ways of figuring this out.
1917-1959
Background Goals
As I stated earlier, before the 1959-60 season we don’t have individual shots for skaters. Therefore, to create Background Goals we multiply each player’s Goals Created by .3. The reason for this is that as I went through the Background Goals for players where we had shot data, the Background Goals were about one-third of the Goals Created.
Again, there is no way that this is a perfect idea. We must remember that what we are doing is making estimates. When we have better data, we get better estimates.
Plus/Minus
We now do not have individual +/- stats for the individual skaters. For this we adapt from what Hockey Reference, but instead of using games we use the estimated minutes played. Instead of using the individual +/-, you use the team +/- in both cases. Not the greatest option, but we have to work with something.
1917-1955
Goalie Claim Points
At the time Marty McFly escaped to the past because his buddy decided to rip off a bunch on Libyans with a phony bomb of used pinball parts, he arrived in a time when we do not have shots against data for goalies. This really sucks because how many shots one faces is significant. Again, better info means better estimates. Since we don’t have that, here is what we do:
Take the league Goals Against Average
Multiply that times 1.5
Multiply that times the goalie’s Games played
Subtract the goalie’s (Goals Allowed times Minutes Played)
For example I’ll use the 1951-52 New York Rangers had three guys between the pipes. Chuck Rayner played 53 games, Emile Francis 14, and Lorne Anderson 3. So for Rayner:
The league GAA was 2.58
Times 1.5 is 3.87
Times 53 is 205.11
Minus (2.94 times 3180)
Equals 47.86
Francis receives 12.85 claim points, and Anderson has a negative-6.46. Anderson zeroes out in the end.
Terrible teams
Bill James brought this up in “Win Shares”; It is the terrible teams that cause problems.
Now, I have loved looking up terrible teams because they are the most interesting teams to read about. Trust me, the 1962 Mets are more fun to read about than the 2018 Red Sox. But when you are trying to build a value system, the teams that suck are the ones that cause the problems. Fortunately only a couple of teams gave me issues.
The first team – working backwards – was the 1974-75 Washington Capitals. They were a first year expansion team who
Had three different head coaches
Lost their first 37 road games and finished 1-39-0 away from our nation’s capital
Was outscored by 285 goals
Finished 8-67-5
Because this team was that bad they actually have a total of -35 Marginal Goals Against. To fix this, I make sure that no team has a percentage of Offensive/Defensive Point Shares greater of .87. That solves one problem. The next problem is because this team was so awful defensively, everyone would have had a negative total of Claim Points. When a team is this bad, I just throw my hands up in the air and give every skater the same (very low) number of Defensive Point Shares. In the case of the 1974-75 Capitals, each skater receives .09 Defensive Point Shares. This means nothing, but when accounting for everything, balancing matters.
There is only one other team that this causes a problem for us. The 1961-62 Bruins were in the same boat; badly outscored, couldn’t get out of their own way. The skaters on that team earn a whopping .32 Defensive Point Shares apiece.
These two teams account for about 12 total Defensive Point Shares. Divide that among 12-15 skaters. Simply put, these teams are more of a nuisance than anything else, but we have to account for everything. And when everyone is bad, they have to be treated as such.
We have one other NHL issue. In the way, way back, the teams played only 44 games. Two teams register with negative (or since I zero them out, zero) claim points for their goalies.) One team is not a problem, because they only had one goalie, so he gets the point shares (the 1917-18 Montreal Wanderers), the other one, the 1929-30 Pittsburgh Pirates*, had two goalies who both registered negative claim points. For this, I simply divided the Goalie Point Shares by the percentage of minutes played. Again, we are not making
*-For younger readers, in the earlier days of professional sports, teams would name themselves after the other teams in the city. Fun Fact: From 1933 to 1939 the NFL Franchise in Pittsburgh was called the Pittsburgh Pirates. Who knew you would learn something about football in a hockey post? You’re welcome in advance.
In the WHA we have a different situation. In 1978 the Indianapolis Racers couldn’t finish the season, playing only 25 games and winning only 12 points (24 Point Shares). When going through the math typically they would end up with negative point shares for the Racers goalies. In this case, we simply credit .75 of the Defensive Point Shares to the skaters, and .25 to the goalies. In this case it gives the Racers goalies 5.22 Point Shares to divide up.
Honestly, though, these details are irrelevant. The point of creating statistics like this are figuring out greatness and undervalued players. Teams that bad are not what we are really worried about. But again, accounting means you account for everything.
How Does My System Compare to Hockey Reference?
My system awards two Point Shares for every point a team earns, absolutely and without exception. Hockey Reference is around a Point Share for every point a team earns. How much do we differ from each other? In a perfect world it would simply be a two to one ratio. We also know that the world is far from perfect.
The worst differences are the ones with the fewest Point Shares. If I have a player with 4 Point Shares and Hockey Reference has the same player at .2 Point Shares, that’s a significant difference ratio-wise. When someone has 5 Point Shares and Hockey Reference has him at a negative-.3, that’s obviously a significant difference ratio-wise.
Overall though, the ratio isn’t that extreme. Overall the average ratio is 2.18 between my system and Hockey Reference.
How Often Does My System Recognize the MVP as the Best Player?
I figured that I would see how my method compared with the MVP voting.
Since expansion began (1967-68 season), the Hart Trophy winner has been seen in my system as the best player (or tied) 34 of the 57 seasons, and additional 11 times the difference has been two Point Shares or less, so for the most part the system has done a decent job of recognizing the best players. Some of the more egregious ones:
2006-07: Sidney Crosby (26 Point Shares) over Robert Luongo (35)
Sid the Kid led the league with 120 points for a 105 point team. Luongo had a 2.28 GAA, also for a 105 point team. I think the biggest reason is that the year before the Penguins were a 58 point team and the 19-year old Crosby helped them improve by 47 points, Luongo came over from Florida and the team only improved by 13 points.
1988-89: Wayne Gretzky (26) over Mario Lemieux (35)
This was the year of THE TRADE. Wayne Gretzky was traded to the Kings in what was the biggest tragedy in Canadien history (just ask them). Gretzky went from the greatest team in hockey – winning four Stanley Cups in five years – to a team that the previous year was 18th out of 21 teams. The Great One’s team improved by 23 points while Super Mario’s improved by just six. Gretzky was the story.
1979-80: Wayne Gretzky (20) over Tony Esposito (28)
Wayne Gretzky was the young phenom, a 19-year old hockey prodigy coming into the NHL with an “expansion team”.* Tony Esposito was a 36-year old goalie for the Black Hawks.** Chicago finished 18 points ahead of Edmonton in the standings, but here is the bigger point is what happens in many an MVP vote: Gretzky was news.
Now, he did tie for the Art Ross Trophy with 137 points, led the league in assists, and the “expansion team” made the playoffs (so did the Whalers, but at that time 16 of 21 teams qualified, so let’s not get carried away). Again, Gretzky won because he was the story. But much like Babe Ruth, when Wayne was playing, he was always the story.
*-Four WHA teams were welcomed into the NHL in 1979: The Edmonton Oilers, Harford Whalers, Quebec Nordiques, and Winnipeg Jets. They were treated as “expansion” teams because “abused” makes it sound bad. The WHA teams were required to pay the NHL $6 million in franchise fees, $3.5 million to the Cincinnati Stingers to fold, and $2.85 million to the Birmingham Bulls for the same reason.*** After that came a complicated system of an expansion draft. The Oilers were allowed to keep Gretzky because Oilers owner Peter Pockington had him signed to a personal services contract. Nine years later he would become the most hated person in Canadien history, and it’s not like they have a short list of candidates.
**-Sure, you want to know why here it’s Black Hawks instead of Blackhawks. The best bet for you is just don’t ask. This league will make zero sense a lot of times.
***-Why do we insist on trying to put professional teams in Birmingham?
After that we get into pre-expansion, where we have very minimal to work with. Trust me, Hockey Reference has their disagreements, too.
My record with the WHA isn’t as good, but twice I do have the top player as the MVP.
Does my system work?
Well, I’ll let you decide. Let me know what you think, and if you have any ideas, I’m all ears.
Here are my predictions for the 2025 NFL season. Please keep this for the end of the season to see just how great of an expert I am.
AFC East (Predicted finish)
Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
33 dead bodies
New York Jets
Buffalo is easily the class of the division and are my pick for the top seed in the AFC. The Patriots will improve some, but I’m not buying as much of the hype as many others are. Mike McDaniel just might be the first coach fired this season, and this is even though they could be 5-3 at the halfway mark. The Jets are the Jets and will remain the Jets until further notice.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Just like the East, the team winning it is not tough to figure out. The Bengals are now the 1980’s and 90’s Dolphins – put up a bunch of points and yards, but will also give up a lot of points and yards and will hover around .500 all year. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 300 yards just once in the last three seasons and his 23 picks are the worst two season stretch of his career. And who’s running the ball for the Browns?
AFC South
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
It’s really a struggle to find seven playoff teams in the AFC. Houston is the best of the division but that isn’t saying a whole lot. Tennessee is rough to watch. Can anyone name another Jaguar other than Trevor Lawrence and now Travis Hunter? Me neither, which is why the team stinks. And the Colts would be better off with Bert Jones and Trent Richardson instead of Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson.
AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders
Alex over at Talk Back Fans mentioned people picking against the Chiefs because of fatigue, and he is right. But I’m picking them to drop off not because of any loathing of the Chiefs, but because of the fatigue they experience playing in three straight Super Bowls. I like what Jim Harbaugh does as a coach, even if he burns people out. Too much went right for the Broncos last year, so I see some regression there. And I just can’t believe in the Raiders to do much more than what they usually do.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders
New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
See what I said about the Broncos and apply it to the Commanders. The Eagles are the defending champs, so I’ll stick with them despite the 20-year trend in this division. I think the Giants will be better than they have been lately. And the Cowboys? Whenever you can trade a future Hall of Famer for 15 cents on the dollar, you have to.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears
Detroit’s offensive line deteriotated and, let’s face it, it’s Detroit. I can’t see the Vikings making great strides with a kid who missed an entire season. The Packers are by default, because the Bears are just something awful
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who Cares
Who Cares
Who Cares
The Bucs win by default. The Panthers, Saints, and Falcons are all small islands in the South Pacific and the volcano on all three of them have erupted, so the locals have nowhere to go. Though I will say that this division is getting closer to my NFL dream: A division so bad that all four teams go 3-3 against each other and lose all of their other games and the other tie breakers cancel out and a coin flip has to decide which 3-14 team wins their division and hosts a playoff game. I know it won’t happen, but one can dream.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
Toughest division by far to predict. I believe that the Niners will return to form (their fourth quarter defense cannot possibly be as bad as last year). I’ve been flip-flopping between the Rams and Hawks, so if you disagree, I probably do, too. And as for the Cardinals, it’s a little known by-law in the NFL that the Cardinals have to perpetually suck. But I guess if it took Jim Plunkett nine seasons to become effective, Kyler Murray still has a couple of years to go.
Wild Card Round
Ravens over Steelers (I will not count the Steelers out of the playoffs until I see the stake driven into the corpse)
Chargers over Bengals (I cannot in good conscience pick a wild card team out of the South)
Chiefs over Texans (KC will still have some fight)
49ers over Vikings (Someone has to be the last wild card)
Buccaneers over Lions (Detroit is still Detroit)
Packers over Rams
Divisional Round
Bills over Chiefs (Buffalo finally gets over that hump)
Ravens over Chargers
Eagles over Buccaneers
49ers over Packers (Fun Fact: Since 2003 the Niners have either played for the NFC Championship or missed the playoffs completely)
Conference Championships
Ravens over Bills (the torture continues for Buffalo)
49ers over Eagles (yes, kind of a homer pick, but . . .)
Super Bowl LX
Ravens over 49ers (something will go wrong for the Niners)
Babe Ruth. Michael Jordan. Joe Namath. Wayne Gretzky.
Even if you don’t pay attention to baseball, basketball, football, or hockey, we all know who these guys are. We can also say that about Hulk Hogan.
Before Hulk Hogan brought Hulkamania into the lexicon, professional wrestling was a regional industry, basically limited to Saturday morning TV shows for an hour. Yes, pro wrestling drew great crowds throughout the 1970’s, but pro wrestling fans weren’t exactly proud to admit it. That all changed on January 23, 1984.
That night Hulk Hogan defeated the Iron Sheik – a fascinating story in his own right – to win the WWF Heavyweight Championship. To say business picked up would be the biggest understatement of the last 50 years.
Vince McMahon needed someone to drive his goal of national (and eventually world wide) glory, and he got the right one in the Hulkster. Soon there would be Tuesday Night Titans, Primetime Wrestling, WWF Superstars, Saturday Night’s Main Event. Hell, they even made a Saturday Moring Cartoon. Yes, this actually happened.
Later came the Monday Night War, and when he famously joined the NWOWCW was running wild over WWE. And because of Hulk (inadvertently), WWE became stronger and ultimately won the War. Because without Hulk Hogan, there is no Shawn Michaels, Stone Cold, or The Rock. Without Hulk Hogan there is no Monday Night Raw. Without Hulk Hogan, there is no Wrestlemania, Summer Slam, or Survivor Series. He was the one name – with no disrespect to Ric Flair – who everyone knew. He transcended professional wrestling.
Other athletes had appeared in movies and television before Hogan. O.J., Fred Williamson, Bob Uecker, Jim Brown, Merlin Olson, and Alex Karras all had multiple roles on the big and small screens. Yes, Andre the Giant had a couple of appearances, but once the Hulk hit with “Rocky III” and “The A-Team”, then his more and more professional wrestlers were given opportunities: Terry Funk, Big John Studd, The Miz, John Cena, Randy Savage, The Undertaker, Crush, Stone Cold, and The Rock all had roles in Hollywood they would not have gotten had Hulk not broken the glass ceiling.
If you were alive in the 1980’s, you knew Hulkamania. Hulk Hogan died today. He left a complicated legacy, that’s for sure, but Hulkamania didn’t die. You can see it and hear it, not just with Rick Derringer’s “Real American”, or the yellow t-shirts, or the foam fingers. You can see it and hear it when the glass breaks and Stone Cold stomps his way to the ring. When The Rock hosts Saturday Night Live. When John Cena shows up in another movie. When Rhea Ripley enters the ring. When CM Punk appears. Hulkamania is in every part of professional wrestling.
RIP, Hulkster. Thank you for being a part of my childhood.
Dave Parker was drafted in the 14th round out of Courter Technical High School in Cincinnati in 1970 by the Pittsburgh Pirates. While I’m updating the Draft Steal Score, his 561.4 is one of the best steals in the history of the draft. The man had speed. The man had power. The man had one of the best arms of his generation – and arguably ever. The worst part about it was that he knew all of that.
Willie Stargell was once told that Dave Parker said that Stargell wsa his idol. Stargell responded by saying, “That’s pretty good, considering that his previous idol was himself.” Yes, he was that arrogant.
At the same time, why wouldn’t he be? At 24 years old he finished third in the MVP voting, hitting .308/.357/.541 (leading the league in slugging) with 25 HR and 101 RBI. Just two years later he led the league in hits, doubles, and won the batting title. The next year he won the MVP, winning another batting title and leading the league in slugging, OPS, total bases. And then the bottom dropped out.
There is the running bit from Rick James “Cocaine is a helluva drug.” Well, it was. The late 70’s and mid 80’s taught us that. Parker became a victim of that whole era, like so many others. He fell off the face of the baseball earth. And then he recovered.
After four years of a massive drop off, he went to his adolescent home of Cincinnati. He put his life back together. At 34 years old he led the league in doubles, RBI and total bases. He led the league in total bases the following year. After that he went to the A’s and helped the Bash Brothers to two pennants and a World Series.
He was a team leader. The man won three Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers. His last Silver Slugger was with Milwaukee as a 39-year old. The man could always hit.
Dave Parker made seven All-Star teams. He was the MVP of the 1979 All-Star Game in Seattle. He was the NL MVP in 1978. Just over the winter, he was selected to the Hall of Fame.
Today The Cobra passed away. He will not get his moment in the sun that he deserves.
What is the most important ability in any facet of life?
Is it intelligence?
Is it stamina?
Is it speed?
Is it athleticism?
Is it willing to do whatever job is required?
Is it willing to work with co-workers?
No. They are all important – and yes, even an office person could use speed and athleticism at times – but the most important ability is AVAILability. And no one was more available than Jim Marshall.
Jim Marshall attended Columbus East High School before attending nearby Ohio State. He actually left the Buckeyes a year early to play in the CFL. He played nine games for the Saskatchewan Roughriders in 1959, then went to the Cleveland Browns for a season. He played every game for the Browns that season, starting seven of the 12 games, but after a bout with encephalitis (in which he was placed in a coma that ultimately saved his life), he was traded to the expansion Minnesota Vikings. And he never left the lineup.
Teamed up with Carl Eller, Alan Page, and Gary Larsen, the Purple People Eaters began to take over pro football. They won the NFL Title in 1969, losing the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. After the merger they would win three more NFC Titles in the 1970’s, but lost all three Super Bowls. But they were there because of their defense.
In the 19 seasons Marshall played for the Vikings, he started every game – regular season or playoffs – and the Vikings were in the top ten in scoring defense 11 times. Remember, this was at the beginning of their franchise to the point where the Purple People Eaters were well past their prime. They won 10 division titles and played in four Super Bowls.
Marshall unofficially recorded 130.5 sacks. His teammate Carl Eller recorded 133.5 (He’s in the Hall), Merlin Olsen recorded 91.0 (He’s in), Deacon Jones recorded 173.5, and he’s in. Marshall played in more Championship Games than Jones and Olsen combined.
He played in more consecutive games than anyone until Jeff Feagles passed him up (a PUNTER). He started 270 consecutive games surpassed by Bret Favre (a QB). At the time he retired, he had played every game in the history of the Minnesota Vikings. That’s 289 total games for one franchise that wasn’t even 20 years old at the time. He was the foundation for a franchise that would remain strong for the vast majority of their existence. And he did it on the defensive line.
Jim Marshall died yesterday at the age of 87. His career Approximate Value of 168 is greater than 38 of the defensive linemen already inducted, And to be blunt, no one is complaining that Buck Buchanan, Jack Youngblood, Willie Davis, Bob Lilly, Randy White, Lee Roy Selmon, or Reggie White are in the Hall of Fame. The fact is that Jim Marshall should have received his gold jacket and had his bronze bust in Canton a long time ago.
RIP, Jim Marshall. Fans should be able to see your bust in the Hall of Fame. Why they can’t, I’ll never know.
In 2001 two players made their debuts with a lot of doubt surrounding them.
The first one was under question before Opening Day. He was already 27 years old, but had hit .353 over in Japan. But this was the Major Leagues, where Japanese pitchers had come over to be exposed*.
*-Hideo Nomo was widely praised coming over and won the NL Rookie of the Year Award. That was at age 26. He finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in his first two years. After that he was 94-92 with a 91 ERA+ and a K/BB rate just under 2.0. Hideki Irabu was another disaster. He was 34-35 with a 5.15 ERA (89 ERA+) before his tragic early death. These were the peaks of Japanese pitchers in the big leagues at the time. As my dad put it, this was why nobody cared about Sadaharu Oh’s home run record; if this was the best they could send us, how good were they?
Major League careers do not begin at age 27. Up to the point when this guy showed up, only Sam Rice had established himself as a regular after turning 25 years old, let alone reach the Hall of Fame. I remember specifically telling my dad and brother that he would never hit Major League pitching.
That season he hit .350/.381/.457, led the AL in hits and stolen bases, won the AL MVP and Rookie of the Year Awards, made the All-Star team, and added a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger for good measure.
Then on August 5, 2016, I had to post:
“When Ichiro Suzuki first came over, I said he would never hit Major League pitching. If he does it two more times this weekend, it will be 3,000 times. I have never been more wrong about a player in my life.”
On Tuesday, Ichiro Suzuki became a first ballot Hall of Famer.
The second one made his debut shortly after. He was just 20 years old, making his first major league start. Rob Neyer wrote that the young rookie might not be up to the same greatness as so many others were hoping for. He expanded his study an additional 20 years, going back to 1960, and still concluded that history was not on the young man’s side.
He finished that season with a 17-5 record, a 4.39 ERA (102 ERA+) and 171 strikeouts in 180.1 innings, finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year Award voting.
On Tuesday, CC Sabathia became a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Now, neither analysis was incorrect – history had shown that the odds were against them – but maybe there was something missing in the analysis.
Ichiro was a slap and slash hitter, almost a tennis player in the batter’s box. He served singles all over the field, adding the occasional double or triple, running the bases with remarkable success (a career .813 stolen base percentage), and unleashing throws that wowed the Pacific Northwest fans (123 career assists and 28 double plays). Coming over at 27 years old, he had a maturity that a 19 year old would certainly lack.
Overall Ichiro earned 10 All-Star appearances, won 10 Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, two batting titles, and set the single season hit record in 2004 with 262. His 3,089 hits rank 25th all-time.
CC was not your typical 20-year old rookie. The biggest fear most people have about young pitchers is whether they will hold up to the strain of getting major league hitters out. CC wasn’t built like most pitchers. At 6-6 and well over 250 pounds (he’s listed on baseball-reference.com at an even 300), his body was ready to handle the workload. He handled it to the point where he won the 2007 AL Cy Young Award, the 2009 ALCS MVP Award, made six All-Star teams, and only twice failed to pitch at least 150 innings. His 3,093 strikeouts ranks 18th all-time.
There was a debate about whether or not Ichiro would have broken Pete Rose’s all-time hit record had he played his whole career in the majors. I went and did a study and figured that Ichiro could have ended up with over 300 more hits that Pete, but I always included this caveat: How would a 19-year old kid from Japan handle coming over here, not speaking the language, and being the center of attention everywhere he went? At 27, Ichiro seemed more than capable; I’m not sure I could say that at 19. Regardless, the fact that he had over 3,000 hits after turning 27 is amazing. And the number of singles . . .
There’s the famous stat that if you take away Henry Aaron’s homeruns he still has 3,000 hits. Well, if you take away all of Ichiro’s extra base hits, he still makes the top 100 in career hits, tied with Buddy Bell at 2,514.
CC took the hill every time, averaging 6.4 innings per start for his career with an average Game Score of 54. His Quality Start Percentage was 57%. And who can forget the run CC had for Milwaukee in 2008, the team going 14-3 in his starts, with him racking up 130.2 innings with a 1.65 ERA with 1,881 pitches (basically 111 pitches per start), including the last three starts on three days rest as he almost single handedly put the Brewers in the playoffs (they were 29-30 in the games he didn’t start after acquiring him)?
There will be something about Billy Wagner later, but these two had parallel careers: Both started in 2001 and finished in 2019. Both reached a magical 3,000 milestone. And both are worthy Hall of Famers, and I’m glad neither had to wait for that to happen.
Uecker on Johnny Carson describing a picture of him downing a beer in celebration
“It was a mistake. Either I made a mistake hitting it or Herbel made a mistake throwing it, but you can be sure that mistakes were made.”
Uecker on his lone grand slam, hit off of Ron Herbel
“These pitchers today are so good, eventually they’re gonna find his bat.”
Uecker on Michael Jordan’s attempt baseball
“I had a great shoe contract and glove contract with a company who paid me a lot of money never to be seen using their stuff.”
Uecker on his endorsement deals
“I still, and this is not sour grapes by any means, still think I should have gone in as a player.”
Uecker during his Hall of Fame induction speech in 2003
“I signed a very modest $3,000 bonus with the Braves in Milwaukee. And my old man didn’t have that kinda money to put out.”
Uecker on his first pro contract
“I had a .200 lifetime batting average in the major leagues, which tied me with another sports great averaging 200 or better for a ten-year period: Don Carter, one of our top bowlers.”
Uecker on his career average
“I set records that will never be equaled. In fact, I hope 90% of them don’t even get printed.”
Uecker on his career accomplishments
“’Bout time, it’s eight nothin’”
Uecker as Harry Doyle in “Major League”
“I led the league in passed balls. And I did that without playing every game.”
Uecker on catching Hall of Famer Phil Niekro
“The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling then pick it up.”
Uecker on how to catch the knuckleball
“I was on the disabled list.”
“Why were you on the disabled list.”
“I got hepatitis.”
“How did you get hepatitis.”
“The trainer injected me with it.”
Uecker during the 1995 World Series explaining to Bob Costas how he helped the Cardinals win the 1964 World Series
“Depending on the weight and the model at the time, I would say eight to ten cookouts.”
Uecker on how long a dozen bats would last him.
“Hey, how about getting your foot off my shoulder?”
Uecker to Andre the Giant during Wrestlemania IV
“HE MISSED THE TAG!!!”
Uecker in his famous Miller Lite commercial
“Usually they came from the outfield.”
Uecker on getting balls in the bullpen
Uecker passed away today at the age of 90. Some career facts:
He hit .200/.293/.287 with 14 homeruns, 65 runs scored, 74 RBI.
Three of his 14 homeruns came off of Hall of Famers – Sandy Koufax, Fergie Jenkins, and Gaylord Perry
In 538.2 innings behind the plate in 1967 he had 27 passed balls and 41 wild pitches catching primarily for knuckleballer Phil Niekro
He is in five different Halls of Fame: Baseball, Radio, Sportscasters, Sportswriters, and WWE
Phil Niekro on Uecker:
“More than anyone else on the professional level, (Bob Uecker) was responsible for my success. He engrained in my mind that I shouldn’t be afraid to throw the knuckler. What happened to it after it left my hand was not my responsibility, but instead his. (He) made it sound as if I alone was responsible for my league-leading ERA. Meanwhile, he took total responsibility for his league-leading twenty-seven passed balls.” — Knuckle Balls, Phil Niekro with Tom Bird, 1986.
For those who want to find a rabbit hole, just type in “Bob Uecker” on YouTube and click away. Nobody ever made a better career out of their own futility. As Brewers’ TV play-by-play Brian Anderson said earlier today, “On our tombstones we’re gonna have the year we were born the year we die, but that dash in the middle Matty (Vasgersian) and Tom (Vurducci), and has there ever been a greater dash in our world than Bob Uecker?”
How do you describe the true greats? Let’s try some numbers to start with . . .
The active leader in stolen bases is Starling Marte at 35 years old. He has 354. Lou Brock has 938. That adds up to 1,292. That total would still be second all-time.
Only Barry Bonds has walked more. No one was unintentionally walked more, though.
Nobody has ever led off a game with a home run more often.
(As Horsehide Trivia pointed out, no one has ever ended a no-hitter with home run more often than Rickey, with 81)
He led the league in stolen bases 12 times, including when he was 39 years old.
He has eight miles of stolen bases over Lou Brock (7.97, but at that point, who’s counting?).
Only Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, and Pete Rose reached base more times than he did.
He led the league in runs scored five times, and no one has touched home plate more often.
Only Barry Bonds walked more often.
Despite all the walks, he still managed to collect 3,055 hits.
This one is from Joe Posnanski:
Ryne Sandberg, Ernie Banks, Tony Gwynn, Lou Brock, Vlad Guerrero, and Yogi Berra – all Hall of Famers, all legit, and all all-time greats – have fewer walks than he had leading off an inning (796).
He passed Ty Cobb twice in the career books. The first time was in 1990, when he stole his 893rd base, passing Cobb for the all-time American League lead*. The second was in 2001, when his home run in the third made him the all-time major league lead in runs scored.
*-for you kids to young to remember, the American League and National League were completely separate. They even had separate organizations keeping their official stats.
What about the stories?
When a teammate told him to make a rookie move to the back of the bus because he had tenure, he responded by saying that he “Had fifteen year!”
He and John Olerud both debunked the famous story about him not remembering Olerud as a teammate. He debunked it by saying that he knew Olerud was a first baseman in the American League, and “I was always on first.”
He told Harold Reynolds that he “would’ve had 60 at the All-Star break!”
Simply put, there never was or never will be another player like him.
Rickey Henderson, the greatest leadoff hitter to ever play the game of baseball, passed away yesterday, just short of his 66th birthday.
He played with a reckless abandon and arrogance that “purists” (old people) despised and teammates loved. The same season he set the record for stolen bases he also set the record for caught stealing. That was his style. As betters know, scared money never wins. Rickey never played scared.
Rickey Henderson is one of my favorite non-Tribe players ever. And despite what a lot of old people would hate about hit style, his teammates loved him. As his former teammate Mitchell Page said, “Rickey is a run.”
He was born on Christmas Day, 1958. To me it seems appropriate that he was his birthday. Because if I bet my life on one person to even attempt to upstage the birth of Christ, it would be Rickey.
Well, it’s been a while and for that I apologize – been trying to finish up a couple of other projects. I’ve also failed at finishing them up, but that’s the story of my life. Instead of team comments, I’m just going to list the final power rankings, then do some picks and predictions. Onto the rankings . . .
Rest of the Top 10: Bobby Witt, Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Tarik Skubal, Emmanuelle Clase, Riley Green, Javy Baez.
In any other season, Witt, Henderson, or Ramirez would be the MVP. And somehow Yordan Alvarez is seldom mentioned despite his amazing performance at the plate. Javy Baez deserves special mention because the Tigers went 24-10 after he went on the IL and out of the lineup. But Judge’s season is one for the ages, and also notice the 10 stolen bases without being caught.
Rest of the Top 10: Francisco Lindor, Chris Sale, Jurickson Profar, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Elly De La Cruz, William Contreras, Matt Chapman, Ketel Marte.
Lindor would be the MVP in any other season. Chris Sale found the Fountain of Youth, somehow Profar was one of the Padres’ best players after years of disappointment. But like most of the awards, Ohtani is the obvious choice for the NL MVP.
Rest of the Top 5: Emmanuel Clase, Seth Lugo, Framber Valdez, Cole Ragans.
The biggest difference between Skubal and Clase is the innings. Now, I will say that this is how I think the vote will go. If Clase somehow wins the award, you’ll get no complaints from me. I do think it’s a lot closer than people think:
Skubal: 2.39 ERA, 192.0 IP, League ERA is 4.01 translates to 35 runs saved above average (4.01 x 192.0 / 9 = 86 ER minus 51 ER – Skubal’s ER allowed)
Clase: 0.61 ERA, 74.1 IP, League ERA is 4.01 translates to 28 runs saved above average (4.01 x 74.1 / 9 = 33 ER minus 5).
But I believe that 118 innings is too much for Clase to overcome.
Rest of the Top 5: Paul Skenes, Zack Wheeler, Dylan Cease, Hunter Greene.
Skenes was a ton of fun this season, but Sale was clearly the best pick after being denied a few previous times.
AL Rookie of the Year: Mason Miller, Athletics (65.0 IP, 2.49 ERA, 14.4 K/9, 28 Sv)
Rest of the Top 3: Colton Cowser, Luis Gil.
Miller was a story this year, which is why I believe he’ll win it. At least Oakland will have him to hang their hat on in the end.
NL Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes, Pirates (133.0 IP, 1.96 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 11.5 K/9, 11-3)
Rest of the Top 3: Jackson Merrill, Masyn Winn.
I mean, was there a bigger rookie story than Skenes? I’m looking forward to seeing Merrill in the postseason, and Masyn Winn has a cannon for an arm, but Skenes will get the award.
AL Manager of the Year: Matt Quatraro, Royals (86-76, reached playoffs, 56-106 last season)
Rest of the Top 3: Stephen Vogt, A.J. Hinch.
What all three of these guys did this season was amazing. There is a formula called a Team Success Percentage, and that is what I used to make my pick. We’ll use the Royals to explain it. The formula is simply:
Take the team’s record last year and multiply the wins and losses times two:
Wins Losses
56 x 2 = 112 106 x 2 = 212
Take the team’s record from two years ago:
Wins Losses
112 212
67 95
Add 162 to each side (the regression to the mean):
Wins Losses
112 212
67 95
162 162
That is 341-469, which is a .419 Team Success Percentage, so we would reasonably expect the Royals to finish 68-94 this season. They exceeded that by 18 wins. The Guardians outperformed their percentage by 11 wins, and the Tigers by 9. Add in that the Royals improved by 30 games from last year and that’s my choice.
NL Manager of the Year: Mike Schildt, Padres (93-69, reached playoffs, 82-80 last season)
Rest of the Top 3: Rob Thompson, Phillies, Pat Murphy, Brewers.
I used the same formula here, and the Padres were +10 against expectation. And let’s give Pat Murphy some love for what he did with the Brew Crew.
Pete Rose
There has never been a more polarizing human in the history of sports. Even during his playing days he was either loved or hated. His Charlie Hustle nickname was not meant as a compliment, but he took it and ran with it.
He won’t reach the Hall of Fame, not even posthumously; that course has been run to the point that a trench is in its place. Besides the gambling, the lying, the income tax evasion, the time with an underage girl, he has done everything he possibly could to keep himself out of Cooperstown. And as DanPatrickpointedouton his show earlier today, it would be hypocritical to put him in the Hall now. Besides, Major League Baseball has no say in who goes in and who doesn’t; it’s the Hall’s decision and they have been very clear about keeping him out.
That being said . . .
It’s not just that he had more hits than anybody else; since he retired only Derek Jeter has gotten within 800 hits
Ten times he had 200 hits; only Ichiro did it more.
He led the league in doubles five times and finished with 746; only Tris Speaker had more (792).
He scored 2,165 runs; only Rickey Henderson, Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, Henry Aaron, and Babe Ruth scored more.
He is one of only one of 39 hitters with over 1,000 extra base hits.
He reached base 5,929 times; only Bonds and Cobb are within 400.
He made 15,890 plate appearances; only Yaz and Aaron are within 2,000.
He played 939 games at first base, 628 at second, 634 at third, 673 in left field, 73 in center, 589 in right. No one else can claim 500 games at five different positions.
He won three batting titles, led the league in OBP twice, runs four times, and five times in games played.
Overall he played 3,562 games; no one is within 200 of him.
He won a Silver Slugger in 1981. He was 40.
He won the 1963 NL Rookie of the Year.
He won the 1973 NL MVP.
He won the 1975 World Series MVP.
He made 17 All-Star teams.
He won the Hutch Award for displaying fighting spirit.
He also won the Lou Gehrig Award for displaying fighting spirit.
He won the Roberto Clemente Award for his work in the community.
His teams were 2011-1611 in the games he played in, including the playoffs. That’s more wins than Hall of Famers Heinie Manush, Jim O’Rourke, Roger Connor, Lloyd Waner, Jim Bottomley, Gabby Hartnett, Larry Walker, Joe Medwick, Edd Roush, Minnie Minoso, Pie Traynor, Billy Herman, Dave Bancroft, Mike Piazza, Joe Sewell, Rick Ferrell, Johnny Mize, Kiki Cuyler, Bobby Doerr, Joe Kelley, Bill Dickey, Kirby Puckett, Ray Schalk, Chuck Klein, Tony Lazzeri, Hugh Duffy, Joe DiMaggio, Jimmy Collins, Bill Terry, Dan Brouthers, Tony Oliva, Larry Doby, Phil Rizzuto, Travis Jackson, Lou Boudreau, George Kelly, Billy Hamilton, Home Run Baker, Joe Gordon, Roger Bresnahan, Freddie Lindstrom, Sam Thompson, Hank Greenberg, and Hack Wilson played games.
Then there is this from Bill James’ 2001 Historical Abstract:
Pete Rose had almost as many extra base hits in his career as Campanella had hits. Which is better to start a pennant race with, a guy that you think might be the MVP, or a guy that you know is going to hustle every day and get 200 hits?
He was what he was, including his own worst enemy. RIP, Charlie Hustle.
The Boyce of the People 